Magnuz.se Near-Earth Asteroids

Magnuz.se - Astronomy - NEA

Asteroids passing within one lunar distance from Earth.

Contents

Contents.

• Contents
• Asteroids
• Facts
  • Impact probabilities
  • Historical impacts

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Asteroids

Asteroid data are automatically updated daily from the NEA ticker (asteroids near Earth from 1 week back to 1 month ahead) at IAU Minor Planet Center (IAU, NASA, Center for Astrophysics at Harvard & Smithsonian), but precise enough orbital data to calculate ephemeris aren't always immediately available from NEA orbits at Minor Planet Center data, so maps with ephemeris are rendered manually and may lag some. Only asteroids with a closest distance to Earth center (perigee) of less than the average distance between the centers of Earth and Moon (lunar distance), 384,399 km, are shown.

Asteroid table

• names (usually provisional designations)
• sizes (average diameter in m estimated from magnitude, real average diameter usually within 50-200% of the estimated)
• impact (impact as kiloton TNT equivalent, assuming correct diameter, spherical shape, density 1200 kg/m3, no disintegration and negligible drag)
• perigee (closest point to Earth) dates (CET/CEST)
• perigee distances (km Earth center to asteroid center, usually ±2422 km)
• maps (rendered using Stellarium app, view from the old Stockholm Observatory, Magnet house dome, in the city of Stockholm, 59.3419°N 18.0545°E 47 m altitude, size 4096x4096 px, celestial hemisphere around the point of asteroid perigee)

Map legend

• yellow: asteroid ephemeris for perigee ± 24 hours line with marks for each hour, "smart" time notation and magnitude without atmosphere
• mainly white: stars
• blue: constellation lines
• light blue: IAU abbreviated constellation names
• gray: equatorial grid J2000
• red: ecliptican J2000
• brown: galactic equator

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Facts

Some facts about asteroids.

Impact probabilities

Since the asteroids listed are those coming within a center distance of 384,399 km from Earth, and Earth average radius is 6,371 km, the probability of an "average" asteroid listed impacting Earth is (6,371/384,399)² ≈ 1/60.336² ≈ 1/3640.4, or, if such an "average" asteroid would come within 384,399 km once per month, it would impact approximately once every 300 years. With a frequency of 92 asteroids within 384,399 km per 182 days (2025-10-29 - 2026-04-28), corresponding to approximately 180 asteroids per year, this would result in approximately one impact every 20 years.

However, an impact on Earth does not equal an impact on Earth surface in this context. The Earth atmosphere can bounce impactors close to the Earth perimeter away. Small impactors may disintegrate or vaporize on the way through the Earth atmosphere and never reach the surface, becoming meteors, fireballs or bolides. "Small" in this context may mean bodies several tens of meters in diameter, especially if they have shallow trajectories, but may explode in the atmosphere and cause considerable damage on the surface anyway, e.g. the Tunguska event 1908, an asteroid with a diameter of 50-80 m and 10-30 Mt blast, and the Chelyabinsk event 2013, an asteroid with a diameter of 18 m and 0.4-0.5 Mt blast. The frequency of these two, relatively large, exploding asteroids, approximately 100 years apart, also validates the rough estimate of one (including minor like the Sikhote Alin event 1947 and Carancas event 2007) impact every 20 years.

Historical impacts

Some notable asteroid impacts on Earth, most recent ones first. (sources Earth Impact Database, Wikipedia)

• Kamchatka, Russia [2018-12-18 11:48 +1200]: Asteroid, 10-14 m diameter, exploded at 25 km altitude, with a blast equivalent to 0.17 Mt (million tons) TNT, over the Bering Sea, 430 km SSE Apuka, Kamchatka.
• Chelyabinsk, Russia [2013-02-15 09:20 +0600]: Asteroid, 18 m diameter, exploded at 30 km altitude, with a blast equivalent to 0.4-0.5 Mt (million tons) TNT, 7200 buildings damaged, 1491 people requiring medical care.
• Carancas, Peru [2007-09-15 11:40:14 -0500]: Asteroid, 1 m diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 1 t (tons) TNT, 14 m wide and 5 m deep crater, unknown effects.
• Sikhote Alin, Soviet Union [1947-02-12 10:30 +1000]: Asteroid, 3 m diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 4 t (tons) TNT, 26 m wide and 6 m deep crater, unknown effects.
• Tunguska, Russia [1908-06-30 07:17 +0700]: Asteroid, 50-80 m diameter, exploded at 10-14 km altitude, with a blast equivalent to 10-30 Mt (million tons) TNT, flattened 2150 km2 of forest.
• Wabar, Saudiarabia [1863/1891]: Asteroid, 16 m diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 15 kt (thousand tons) TNT, 86 m wide and 12 m deep crater, unknown effects.
• Haviland, Kansas, USA [-1000 y]: Asteroid, 1.1 m diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 1 t (tons) TNT, 15 m wide and 4 m deep crater, unknown effects.
• Sobolev, Russia [-1000 y]: Asteroid, 5 m diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 50 t (tons) TNT, 53 m wide and 9 m deep crater, unknown effects.
• whitecourt, Canada [-1100 y]: Asteroid, 0.6 m diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 8 t (tons) TNT, 36 m wide and 6 m deep crater, unknown effects.
• Kamil, Egypt [-5000 y]: Asteroid, 1.3 m diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 30 t (tons) TNT, 45 m wide and 16 m deep crater, unknown effects.
• Barringer/Meteor crater, Arizona, USA [-50000 y]: Asteroid, 48 m diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 10 Mt (million tons) TNT, 1.2 km wide and 170 m deep crater, unknown effects.
• Popigai, Russia [-35.7 My]: Asteroid, 5-8 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 6 Tt (million million tons) TNT, 90 km wide crater, Eocene–Oligocene extinction.
• Chicxulub, Mexico [-65.0 My]: Asteroid, 10-15 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 72 Tt (million million tons) TNT, 150 km wide and 20-30 km deep crater, Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction including all non-avian dinosaurs.
• Manicouagan, Canada [-214 My]: Asteroid, 5 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 5 Tt (million million tons) TNT, 85 km wide crater, improbable Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction.
• Siljansringen, Sweden [-377 My]: Asteroid, 5 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 4.6 Tt (million million tons) TNT, 52 km wide crater, Late Devonian mass extinction.
• Acraman, Australia [-590 My]: Asteroid, 5 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 5.2 Tt (million million tons) TNT, 90 km wide crater, unknown effects.
• Uppland (Björklinge), Sweden [-1.79 Gy]: Asteroid (probable), 15-20 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 180 Tt (million million tons) TNT, 320 km wide and 50 km deep crater, unknown effects.
• Sudbury, Canada [-1.85 Gy]: Asteroid, 10-15 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 100 Tt (million million tons) TNT, 130 km wide and 15 km deep crater, unknown effects.
• Vredefort, South Africa [-2.02 Gy]: Asteroid, 10-15 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 100 Tt (million million tons) TNT, 160 km wide crater, unknown effects.
• Theia, Earth [-4.47 Gy]: Protoplanet, 6500 km diameter, impact with a blast equivalent to 8 Zt (thousand million million million tons) TNT, melted crust, created Moon, left huge provinces at Earth core/mantle boundary.

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created 2025-11-26 and last updated 2026-05-16 by Magnuz of Sweden.